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Potential for Shoreline Changes Due to Sea-Level Rise Along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region

E-Sea-Level Rise on the U.S. Atlantic Coast

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Over the last century, relative sea-level rise rates along the Atlantic coast of the U.S. have ranged between 1.8 mm/yr (Maine) to as much as 4.4 mm/yr (Virginia, Table 1; Zervas, 2001). The lowest rates (~1.8 mm/yr) are nearly equivalent to the average global rate for the 20th century of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm/yr (Bindoff and others, 2007) and occur along coastal New England and from Georgia to southern Florida. The highest rates have been observed in the mid-Atlantic region between northern New Jersey and northeastern North Carolina (Table 1; Zervas, 2004). Subsidence of the land surface due to a range of factors contributes to the high rates of relative sea-level rise observed in this region. It is believed that the subsidence is attributable mainly to glacio-isostatic adjustments of the earth's crust in response to the melting of the Laurentide ice sheet, and to the compaction of sediments due to freshwater withdrawal from coastal aquifers (Gornitz and Lebedeff, 1987; Emery and Aubrey, 1991; Peltier, 2001).

Table 1. Rates of Relative Sea-Level Rise for Selected Long-Term Tide Gauges on the East Coast of the United States (Zervas, 2001).

Station Rate of Sea Level
Rise (mm/yr)
Latitude Longitude Time Span of Record
Eastport, Maine 2.12 ±0.13 44.9033 -66.9850 1929-1999
Portland, Maine 1.91 ±0.09 43.6567 -70.2467 1912-1999
Seavey Island, Maine 1.75 ±0.17 43.0833 -69.2500 1926-1999
Boston, Mass. 2.65 ±0.1 42.3550 -71.0517 1921-1999
Woods Hole, Mass. 2.59 ±0.12 41.5233 -70.2222 1932-1999
Providence, R.I. 1.88 ±0.17 41.8067 -71.4017 1938-1999
Newport, R.I. 2.57 ±0.11 41.5050 -71.3267 1930-1999
New London, Conn. 2.13 ±0.15 41.3550 -72.0867 1938-1999
Montauk, N.Y. 2.58 ±0.19 41.0733 -71.935 1947-1999
Willets Point, N.Y. 2.41 ±0.15 40.8000 -72.2167 1931-1999
The Battery, N.Y. 2.77 ±0.05 40.7000 -74.0150 1905-1999
Sandy Hook, N.J. 3.88 ±0.15 40.4667 -73.9833 1932-1999
Atlantic City, N.J. 3.98 ±0.11 39.355 -74.4183 1922-1999
Philadelphia, Pa. 2.75 ±0.12 39.9335 -75.1417 1900-1999
Lewes, Del. 3.16 ±0.16 38.7817 -75.1200 1919-1999
Baltimore, Md. 3.12 ±0.08 39.2667 -76.5783 1902-1999
Annapolis, Md. 3.53 ±0.13 38.9833 -76.4800 1928-1999
Solomons Island, Md. 3.29 ±0.17 38.3167 -76.4517 1937-1999
Washington D.C. 3.13 ±0.21 38.8733 -77.0217 1931-1999
Hampton Roads, Va. 4.42 ±0.16 36.9467 -76.3300 1927-1999
Portsmouth, Va. 3.76 ±0.23 36.8167 -75.7000 1935-1999
Wilmington, N.C .2.22 ±0.25 34.2267 -77.9533 1935-1999
Charleston, S.C. 3.28 ±0.14 32.7817 -79.9250 1921-1999
Fort Pulaski, Ga. 3.05 ±0.2 32.3330 -80.9017 1935-1999
Fernandina Beach, Fla. 2.04 ±0.12 30.6717 -81.4650 1897-1999
Mayport, Fla. 2.43 ±0.1830.3967 -81.4300 1928-1999
Miami, Fla. 2.39 ±0.22 25.7667 -79.8667 1931-1999
Key West, Fla. 2.27 ±0.09 24.5533 -81.8083 1913-1999

With the anticipated acceleration in the rate of global sea-level rise (e.g., IPCC 2001; 2007), local rates of relative sea-level rise will also accelerate. Recently, the Fourth Assessment Report (FAR) of the IPCC has predicted that sea level will rise by 10-59 cm over the next century (Meehl and others, 2007), which is a somewhat smaller rise and range than reported in the Third Assessment Report (TAR; IPCC, 2001; estimate 11-88 cm) (Church and others, 2001). Several recent criticisms of the FAR estimates of future sea-level changes (Rahmstorf, 2007; Rahmstorf and others, 2007; Hansen and others, 2007) argue that these estimates are conservative and do not incorporate adequately the potential contributions of land-based ice melt from Greenland and western Antarctica to global sea level. The IPCC assessment concludes that the science regarding future acceleration in ice melt and its contribution to sea-level rise is not yet sufficient to include in their sea-level projections.

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