Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center > Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise Assessment for the Northeastern United States
As part of the USGS Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision-Support project, this assessment seeks to predict the response to sea-level rise across the coastal landscape under a range of future scenarios by evaluating the likelihood of inundation as well as dynamic coastal change. The research is being conducted in conjunction with resource managers and decision makers from federal and state agencies, and non-governmental organizations and utilizes a structured decision-making approach to ensure research outcomes meet decision making needs.
Landscape Change Predictions
The coastal response to sea-level rise is assessed for the northeastern U.S. using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates, and elevation and land cover data. The landscape response to sea-level rise is presented on maps showing probabilistic predictions of the level of potential landscape submergence and the likelihood of landscape change.
Tools allow users to explore and identify which areas may be best-suited to meet their land adaptation or management requirements for a variety of planning horizons. Coming soon!
Structured Decision Making
Structured decision making (SDM) is a formalized approach to problem solving that requires consideration of the objectives, management options, alternative actions, and tradeoffs related to the decision problem from the outset. Outcomes from an SDM workshop were used to inform coastal response model development at the beginning of this project to ensure predictions can be applied to specific land and resource management objectives.
Lentz, E.E., Thieler, E.R., Plant, N.P, Stippa, S.R., Horton, R., and Gesch, D.B. (2016). Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate295.
Climate Central news article, “New Hope for U.S. Coastlines Even as Seas Rise” about our sea-level rise model.[http://www.climatecentral.org/news/hope-for-us-coastlines-even-as-seas-rise-20159]
National Geographic news article, “Americans in Danger From Rising Seas Could Triple” about future sea level rise impacts on the coast. [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/03/160314-rising-seas-US-climate-flooding-florida/]
New York Times article, “Rising Sea Levels May Disrupt Lives of Millions, Study Says” about future sea level rise impacts on coastal populations. [http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/science/rising-sea-levels-global-warming-climate-change.html]
Daily Press news article, “Study: 70 percent of coastal Northeast could adapt to rising seas" about how our sea level rise model relates to marsh adaptation. [http://www.dailypress.com/news/science/dp-nws-coast-can-adapt-20160320-story.html]